mcp-server

# TeleKash MCP Server **Prediction market probability oracle for AI agents.** [](https://www.npmjs.com/package/telekash-mcp-server) [](https://opensource.org/licenses/MIT) [](https://modelcontextprotocol.io) [](https://nodejs.org) ## What is this? TeleKash is the probability oracle for the agent economy. Real-time access to 4,500+ live prediction markets from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket. Structured trading signals, cross-source arbitrage detection, noise filtering, and smart trade routing across crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, and science. **What makes it different:** - **Multi-source** — Kalshi + Polymarket + native pools, not single-exchange - **Self-calibrating** — Platt scaling with daily recalibration cycles and Brier score tracking - **Universal Payment Layer** — agents pay per-call with USDC (Base/Polygon/Solana via x402), fiat (Stripe), or TON - **28 tools** — from free probabilities to broker execution with 1% commission ## Quick Install ```bash npx telekash-mcp-server ``` ### Claude Code ```bash claude mcp add telekash-oracle npx telekash-mcp-server ``` ### Claude Desktop / Cursor Add to your MCP configuration file: ```json { "mcpServers": { "telekash-oracle": { "command": "npx", "args": ["telekash-mcp-server"] } } } ``` ## Tools 28 tools across 4 categories. All tools work without an API key on the Free tier (100 queries/day). 4,500+ live markets. ### Intelligence | Tool | What it does | Tier | | ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ----------- | | `get_probability` | Real-time YES/NO probability with volume-weighted confidence score | Free | | `list_markets` | Browse markets by category, source, jurisdiction, with sorting | Free | | `search_markets` | Full-text search across 4,500+ markets | Free | | `get_history` | Historical probability changes over 1h, 24h, 7d, 30d | Free | | `get_sentiment` | AI sentiment analysis with conviction, momentum, and noise filter | Free | | `get_market_stats` | Aggregate statistics across all markets and sources | Free | | `get_trending` | Markets with the biggest probability swings | Free | | `compare_sources` | Kalshi vs Polymarket side-by-side odds comparison | Calibration | ### Analytics | Tool | What it does | Tier | | ------------------ | ----------------------------------------------------------------------- | ----------- | | `detect_arbitrage` | Cross-source arbitrage opportunities with buy/sell signals | Calibration | | `get_signal` | Structured TPF signal: probability + sentiment + noise filter + verdict | Calibration | | `get_divergences` | Markets where sources disagree most (STRONG/MODERATE/WEAK) | Calibration | | `get_edge` | Kelly Criterion sizing, expected value, and risk classification | Calibration | | `track_prediction` | Record predictions for accuracy tracking | Calibration | | `get_performance` | Brier score, calibration curve, edge-vs-market analysis | Calibration | ### Trading | Tool | What it does | Tier | | ----------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---- | | `execute_trade` | Route trades to Kalshi, Polymarket, or native parimutuel pools | Edge | | `get_order_status` | Check fill status, price, and commission on broker orders | Edge | | `cancel_order` | Cancel pending or submitted broker orders | Edge | | `get_pool_status` | Native pool composition, participant counts, implied odds | Edge | | `get_agent_balance` | Agent balance, P&L, win rate, and pool position count | Edge | | `get_resolution_status` | Multi-source resolution verification and confidence levels | Edge | | `create_market` | Create custom binary prediction markets | Edge | | `export_data` | Bulk export: probability history, resolutions, catalogs, arbitrage | Edge | ### Admin | Tool | What it does | Tier | | ------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------ | ---- | | `generate_api_key` | Generate a free API key (no signup required) | Free | | `get_usage` | Check current API usage, rate limits, and tier status | Free | | `register_alert` | Webhook alerts for probability crosses, mispricings, volume spikes | Edge | | `list_alerts` | List active webhook alerts with delivery stats | Edge | | `delete_alert` | Delete a webhook alert | Edge | | `get_health` | System health: connectivity, data freshness, broker status | Free | ## Pricing Per-query pricing. No subscriptions. Free tier requires no API key. | Tier | Cost | Queries/Day | What you get | | --------------- | ----------- | ----------- | ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | | **Free** | $0 | 100 | Probabilities, search, trending, sentiment, stats, health | | **Calibration** | $0.01/query | 1,000 | + Cross-source comparison, arbitrage, signals, divergence, Kelly sizing, performance tracking | | **Edge** | $0.05/query | Unlimited | + Broker trading (1% commission), native pools (5% fee), webhooks, data export, market creation | ### Revenue model | Stream | Rate | Description | | -------------------- | -------------------- | --------------------------------------------------- | | Intelligence queries | $0 - $0.05/query | Real-time probability, sentiment, signals | | Broker trades | 1% commission | Best-price execution routed to Kalshi or Polymarket | | Native pool trades | 5% fee at resolution | Parimutuel pools alongside Telegram users | ### Universal Payment Layer Agents can also pay per-call without an API key or tier — attach payment proof directly in tool arguments. | Rail | Network | Asset | Fee | | ------------------- | --------------------- | ----------------- | --------- | | **x402** (Coinbase) | Base, Polygon, Solana | USDC | Free (0%) | | **Stripe MPP** | Fiat | USD (cards, bank) | 2.9% | | **TON** | TON mainnet | TON | Free (0%) | ```typescript // Agent pays per-call — no subscription needed const result = await client.callTool({ name: "get_signal", arguments: { query: "Bitcoin 200K", x402_payment: { tx_hash: "0xabc...", network: "base", rail: "x402", }, }, }); ``` ### Get an API key ```bash # Via the MCP server itself (free tier, no signup) # Call the generate_api_key tool # Or via Telegram # Message @TeleKashBot with /apikey ``` ## Example Connect to the server and query a market probability: ```typescript import { Client } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/index.js"; import { StdioClientTransport } from "@modelcontextprotocol/sdk/client/stdio.js"; const transport = new StdioClientTransport({ command: "npx", args: ["telekash-mcp-server"], }); const client = new Client({ name: "my-agent", version: "1.0.0" }); await client.connect(transport); // Get probability for a market const result = await client.callTool({ name: "get_probability", arguments: { query: "Will Bitcoin hit $200K by end of 2026?" }, }); console.log(result.content); // => { probability: { yes: 34, no: 66 }, confidence: { grade: "HIGH", score: 82 }, ... } ``` More examples in the [`examples/`](./examples) directory: - `quick-start.ts` -- Connect, search, get probabilities - `arbitrage-scanner.ts` -- Find cross-source mispricings - `portfolio-scanner.ts` -- Scan markets and build a ranked portfolio - `market-monitor.ts` -- Watch a market and log probability changes ## Environment Variables The server works without any credentials (returns demo data). For live market access: ``` SUPABASE_URL=https://rrkjtdnxkscukexbsrue.supabase.co SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=your-anon-key TELEKASH_API_KEY=your-api-key # Optional: enables paid tiers TELEKASH_PAYMENT_ADDRESS=0x... # Optional: EVM wallet for x402 USDC payments TELEKASH_TON_ADDRESS=UQ... # Optional: TON wallet for TON payments STRIPE_SECRET_KEY=sk_... # Optional: Stripe for fiat payments X402_FACILITATOR_URL=https://x402.org/facilitator # Default: Coinbase facilitator ``` ## Data Sources | Source | Type | Sync Frequency | | ---------- | -------------------------- | ---------------- | | Kalshi | CFTC-regulated US exchange | Every 15 minutes | | Polymarket | Crypto-native exchange | Every hour | All sources are aggregated, deduplicated, and categorized automatically across 8 categories: crypto, politics, sports, entertainment, finance, weather, tech, science. ## Links - [npm](https://www.npmjs.com/package/telekash-mcp-server) - [GitHub](https://github.com/TeleKashOracle/mcp-server) - [Agent Card](https://github.com/TeleKashOracle/mcp-server/blob/main/agent-card.json) - [A2A Protocol](https://github.com/TeleKashOracle/mcp-server/blob/main/server.json) - [TeleKash Bot](https://t.me/TeleKashBot) ## License MIT